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What do you think of the A-share market in 2025?

According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.[Institutions are optimistic about the three major directions of 2025! 】

According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.Hualong Securities recently released the 2025 A-share investment strategy report, which believes that from the release of the new "National Nine Articles" to the introduction of incremental financial policies on September 24, the bottom of the market will be established. The new "National Nine Articles" is the third "National Nine Articles" in the capital market. The three "National Nine Articles" plan the path of "stable development → healthy development → high-quality development" in the capital market. On April 12, the new "National Nine Articles" released stable market expectations, pushing the capital market into a new stage of high-quality development, and the market moved towards the 4.0 period. On September 24, a package of financial policies proposed to activate market risk appetite and boost the market quickly in a short time, and the market bull market pattern appeared. It is expected that the loose policy will continue in 2025, which is expected to drive the continuous improvement of economic fundamentals and enhance the performance growth expectations of listed companies. The bull market is expected to continue to be interpreted. It is estimated that the economic growth rate will remain around 5% in 2025, and investment and consumption will become important driving forces for growth. The global economic growth rate will remain resilient, and there will be external disturbance factors in the market, but the impact may be limited.CDB Securities believes that it should closely follow the market orientation of "supporting the superior and limiting the inferior" and pay attention to the A-share core asset index. After a long-term adjustment, the market growth index is expected to gain excess returns in 2025. Look for target industries through factors such as low valuation, future inflation expectations and green economy, and pay attention to capital-driven themes such as mergers and acquisitions. Commodity prices have a long-term upward momentum, but they may still fluctuate in the short term.